Global Warming ()

Their recent analysis of sediment from the largest freshwater lake in northeast China showed that its carbon clock stopped ticking as early as 30, years ago, or nearly half as long as was hitherto thought. For instance, remnants of organic matter formerly held up as solid evidence of the most recent, large-scale global warming event some 40, years ago may actually date back far earlier to a previous ice age. Their work was detailed in a paper in the latest issue of the journal Earth and Planetary Science Letters. For over 50 years, scientists and researchers have relied on carbon dating to find the exact age of organic matter. Prior to that, they had to depend on more rudimentary and imprecise methods, such as counting the number of rings on a cross-section of tree trunk. This all changed in the s when US chemist Willard Libby discovered that carbon , a radioactive isotope, could be used to date organic compounds. His theory was that all living creatures have a constant proportion of radioactive and non-radioactive carbons in their body because they keep absorbing these elements from the environment.

How thermometer and satellite data is adjusted and why it must be done

The first is the statistical accuracy of current climate models and measures, espescially as they are frequently combined with models and measures from as long as two or three hundred years ago to create the current warming trend. Back then, temperature was measured haphazardly with mercury thermometers and ‘dead reckoning’. These problems are compounded for oceanic temperature, a pretty big part of the global climate model given that the oceans take up quite a bit of the surface.

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Rise in sea levels is ‘faster than we thought’ 14 Jan How have we come to be told that global temperatures have suddenly taken a great leap upwards to their highest level in 1, years? This belief has rested entirely on five official data records. The adjusted graph from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies In recent years, these two very different ways of measuring global temperature have increasingly been showing quite different results. RSS and UAH have, meanwhile, for 18 years been recording no rise in the trend, with ranking as low as only the sixth warmest since One surprise is that the three surface records, all run by passionate believers in man-made warming, in fact derive most of their land surface data from a single source.

But two aspects of this system for measuring surface temperatures have long been worrying a growing array of statisticians, meteorologists and expert science bloggers. One is that the supposedly worldwide network of stations from which GHCN draws its data is flawed. This alone contributed to the sharp temperature rise shown in the years after Earlier temperatures are adjusted downwards, more recent temperatures upwards, thus giving the impression that they have risen much more sharply than was shown by the original data.

It was McIntyre who, in , uncovered the wholesale retrospective adjustments made to US surface records between and compiled by Giss then run by the outspoken climate activist James Hansen. These reversed an overall cooling trend into an year upward trend. Assiduous researchers have since unearthed countless similar examples across the world, from the US and Russia to Australia and New Zealand.

In Australia, an year cooling of 1 degree per century was turned into a warming trend of 2.

Unprecedented atmospheric behavior disrupts one of Earth’s most regular climate cycles

Posted on July 2, by Doug Keenan argues that significance means that the temperature rise could not be reasonably attributed to natural random variation. He then seems to argue that significance can only be determined using a statistical model. Furthermore, he suggests that there is a statistical model driftless ARIMA 3,1,0 that would allow us to conclude that the surface temperature could indeed be simply some random natural variation.

Furthermore, he suggests that the Met Office have admitted that their statistical model is inadequate.

Jan 07,  · Disclaimer: This is NOT a George Bush bashing thread, but focus more on congress and laws that have passed, please And we’ll add some color to that missive.

It starts by criticising the performance of GCMs and then proposes what it describes as an irreducibly simple climate model. The model output is then compared to various IPCC projections dating back to The paper finishes by concluding that the IPCC has over-stated the likely magnitude of anthropogenic global warming. The first is the model itself, and the second is the selection of parameters used to generate the output. I am neither an expert mathematician nor a physicist, but at first sight the model derivation makes sense.

As a simple tool for estimating possible temperature increases in response to different climate scenarios it could be very useful and time-saving. It should be noted that it is a straightforward linear model, and the output is an increase in temperature over a user-defined timespan. It considers only the response to anthropogenic CO2 and ignores all other climatic processes.

“Idiocracy”

But what policies of the last 8 years were so terrible? Has legislation been introduced by the Democratically controlled congress to change these policies? How have the republicans been preventing legislature from getting through – and why would they, if the current policies are so unpopular. To some extent, “the last 8 years” is really the first 6 years of the bush administration followed by 2 years of a lame duck president with a veto stamp.

The democratic congress did pass legislation to try and clean things up and it did pass they did have the majority after all but they could not get enough republican support to get the necessary votes to override a presidential veto.

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There is still considerable discussion of the ultimate causes of the warm temperature anomalies that occurred in the Arctic in the s and s. The numbers above the abscissa show the number of stations used in the compilation. The graph shows a gradually rising surface temperature trend over the years of the temperature record but the dominant feature is the nearly 2C trough to ridge warming from about to , followed by a decline bottoming out in the mid s.

At that stage the temperature trends upward to almost the same level as the previous peak. This early century Arctic warming has long fascinated me, and I have been collecting material for a new post on this topic. Tamino objects specifically to this text in my testimony: Notwithstanding the simulations by climate models that reproduce the decline in Arctic sea ice, more convincing arguments regarding causes of sea ice variations requires understanding and ability to simulate sea ice variations in both hemispheres.

A key issue in understanding the recent decline in Arctic sea ice extent is to understand to what extent the decline is caused by anthropogenic warming versus natural climate variability. Not only does it fail to support the claim about s Arctic temperatures, it actually contradicts that claim.

An xkcd semi

Now math has shown the reason why. Smaldino created a model of how human behavior adds up into collective conformity, precisely because we want to be individuals. Yet the takeaways contain a morsel of hope for how radical individuals can still change the broader society. Modeling People To understand why, consider a model population of people.

When Smaldino set all those variables in motion, he realized a few things.

Directed by Reid Waterer. Four tales of love and lust from around the globe seen in over film festivals on 6 continents. A Bollywood inspired romance starts a journey that leads everywhere from the Greek Isles to the Hollywood Hills.

Are we headed for a new ice age? By Phil Plait June 17, 6: Can this mean the Earth itself will literally cool off, slipping into an ice age? The answer — spoiler alert! And if you have the attention span of an E. One in particular was Caspar Ammann , who was very helpful in explaining the solar connection with the Little Ice Age to me. The strength and complexity of the solar field governs a lot of the surface activity, including sunspots , solar flares , prominences , and coronal mass ejections.

But scientists studying the Sun have seen three independent lines of reasoning indicating that the next rise to the solar peak, in or so, may be delayed or even not occur at all.

The Last Eight Years

Then stop the proxies, tack on thermometer data that was recorded in a different way with different errors and a very different response to faster temperature changes. I took the 14, pixel cartoon and squeezed it to one shot that shows the curve that matters. See the error bars? But who needs an uncertainty range when you have faith?

Air pollution, global warming, and the steady decrease in petroleum resources continue to stimulate interest in the development of safe, clean, and highly efficient transportation.

A strange thing happened in the stratosphere September 2, This disruption to the wind pattern – called the “quasi-biennial oscillation” – did not have any immediate impact on weather or climate as we experience it on Earth’s surface. But it does raise interesting questions for the Scientists begin to unravel summer jet stream mystery August 25, Scientists have discovered the cause of the recent run of miserable wet summers as they begin to unravel the mysteries of the Atlantic jet stream.

British weather set to become more unsettled September 9, The new research, published today 9 September in the International Journal of Climatology, shows that weather patterns over the UK have become distinctly more unstable, resulting in contrasting conditions from very Clear link between solar activity and winter weather revealed October 10, Scientists have demonstrated a clear link between the year sun cycle and winter weather over the northern hemisphere for the first time.

Recommended for you Researchers measure carbon footprint of Canada hydroelectric dams November 22, Squatting on spongy soil, a climate scientist lays a small cone-shaped device to “measure the breathing” of a peat bog in the northern part of Canada’s Quebec province. Researchers find simple way to massively improve crop loss simulations November 21, Droughts or heat waves have consequences that spread beyond farmers anxiously watching their fields; these fluctuations in crop yields can send shockwaves through local and global food supplies and prices.

Lake Erie algal blooms ‘seeded’ internally by overwintering cells in lake-bottom sediments November 21, Western Lake Erie’s annual summer algal blooms are triggered, at least in part, by cyanobacteria cells that survive the winter in lake-bottom sediments, then emerge in the spring to “seed” the next year’s bloom, according Pacific Ocean typhoons could be intensifying more than previously projected November 21, Changes to the uppermost layer of Earth’s oceans due to rising temperatures are likely causing an increase in intense Pacific Ocean typhoons, suggesting strong typhoons may occur more frequently than scientists project in Discovery of a new gene could shed light on chemical exposure effects in humans November 21, The discovery of a new gene in zebrafish could lead to a better understanding of how exposure to chemicals leads to disease in humans, according to a new Oregon State University study.

XKCD does it again.

Having seen it all in so many movies, she felt like she was going to visit a legendary movie set. It was too much to think about all at once. The Story of Humans and Space About six million years ago, a very important female great ape had two children.

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The Answer is Clearly No. The Camp Fire that struck the northern California town of Paradise and vicinity is a profoundly disturbing environmental disaster of first magnitude. Nearly people have lost their lives, approximately 10, homes have been lost, a major community has essentially been destroyed, and millions of people have been exposed to high concentrations of smoke. Tens of thousands of people have been displaced and lives of millions substantially affected. And beyond the heart-wrenching losses noted above, it is doubly tragic that this disaster was both foreseeable and avoidable, resulting from a series of errors, poor judgment, lack of use of available technology, and poor urban planning.

It is more than unfortunate that some politicians, environmental advocacy groups, and activist scientists are attempting to use this tragedy as a tool for their own agenda, make the claim that the Camp Fire was result of global warming. As I will discuss below, this claim has little grounding in fact or science.

The next great global warming hiatus is coming! (Synopsis)

A study , just out Monday in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, supports a long-standing theory that some plants become more efficient at using water under higher carbon dioxide concentrations. That means if plants around the world continue to adjust to rising carbon dioxide concentrations, increasing their biomass on a global scale, they could actually help offset some of our human carbon emissions by removing more carbon dioxide from the air.

These things all hang together. It turns out that most plants tend to favor carbon over carbon for carrying out the chemical processes involved in photosynthesis.

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My note this morning on ” Most ” stirred up some discussion: I think ‘most’ licenses a default generalization, relative to a bunch of pragmatic factors, … MattF: I think ‘most’ has a normative or qualitative sense in addition to a quantitative sense. For me too, “most” has a defeasible implicature of “much more than a majority”. Those rear ends are pretty well covered — “default”, “in addition to”, “defeasible” — but Nicholas Waller got numerical: Even two-thirds feels borderline.

But Adrian Bailey agreed with my first reaction:

Climate Change / Global Warming

It seems that additional infrared or long wave radiation is supposed to have some property that makes it a threat. It seems that those who fear AGW or at least some of them do admit that it is not realistic to expect a planetary atmosphere such as ours to warm up oceans of water over the timescale required by AGW theory because of the huge volume and density of that water and thus the heat storage differentials.

Water will cool air very effectively but the heat energy drawn from the air makes virtually no difference to the temperature of the water. My contention is that warming up enough of the entire body of the oceans would take millennia if it were possible at all and not just a couple of decades as feared by some. To deal with the problem of getting the oceans to warm up a mechanism has been proposed by Realclimate on this link:

Time for a comic, XKCD is known for a mix of, “Romance, sarcasm, math, and language”; and is also known for finding entertaining ways to display facts and data. His graph of global warming addresses the response, “The climate has changed before.” by showing how climate has changed before, particularly relative to the extent.

It takes a minute to scroll through the entire thing. It becomes immediately obvious that Earth is a cool planet with some natural variability in temperature. As the timeline follows the course of human advancement, the planet warms and ice sheets retreat. The temperature peaks about 5, B. See Our Fatima Collection The cooling trend continues until the industrial revolution and the development of steam engines which normally run on coal.

It should be understood that steam engines are not only locomotives, but were also engines that powered entire factories and ships. These engines alongside the clear cutting of forests and massive increase in fossil fuel consumption dumped unprecedented quantities of CO2 into the atmosphere. The environment has never been able to keep up with the pace of our development.

We pump more CO2 into the atmosphere than nature takes up.

Contemporary Climate Change as Seen Through Measurements